[FEL-L] May 28th 2007 Just what's the actual tiger population?

[BigCatSimba at aol.com]

Just what's the actual tiger population? 
 
28 May, 2007 l 0113 hrs ISTlNitin Sethi/TIMES NEWS NETWORK
 
NEW DELHI: When Wildlife Institute of India (WII) revealed last week that 
there are about 417 tigers left, give or take a few, in the four states of 
Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, government claimed that the 
figures were not comparable with the much higher numbers touted earlier. 

The official reasoning was that the two methods of estimating tiger numbers 
were completely different. Under the previous pug mark-based 'method', 1,006 
tigers were estimated in the four states. But does this account for a steep drop 
of 59%? 

And while officials and experts argue the reasons for the fall in tiger 
numbers, WII figures have again focussed attention on the question: Just what is 
the current tiger population in India? 

If findings for central India are extrapolated — a drop of roughly 60% — the 
2002 "official" figure of 3,773 tigers should really be around 2,000. 
Consider an example, Kanha in MP was said to have 127 tigers as per the last census. 
But, the new study, which covers areas beyond the tiger reserve itself, says 
there aren't more than 105 at best and 73 at worst. 

If tiger population is under such stress in its prime ranges, how would it be 
faring elsewhere? But while estimates can be hazarded, it is now possible to 
piece together part of the tiger murder mystery and see how experts and 
officials, who previously blew the whistle, were more right than they thought they 
were. 

Study after study has shown that it is possible to work out density of tigers 
per sq km by estimating the presence of the prey they consume. "While overall 
populations can be predicted (assuming there is no poaching), one cannot 
predict the number of breeding females. That is specific to each park's 
conditions," explains Raghu Chundawat, an independent tiger expert. 

This has been now proven in the case of Kuno where WII experts accepted that 
absence of any chital or other animals that the tiger hunts made it evident 
that the animal would not survive. Eventually, the physical evidence of only 
three tigers in a habitat of 3,162 sq km that is historically known to have 
housed the big cat could be found. 

Prey species itself depend on conditions of the habitat — typical of a food 
chain that starts with the tiger and goes down to grass. Between 1997-2002, 
tiger reserves had lost 251 sq km of forest — 124 sq km had degraded, 33 sq km 
improved into denser forest but 94 sq km had been lost. 

In surroundings of parks, forest cover declined over the same period by 124 
sq km. The tiger typically survives in what scientists call meta-populations — 
a source population with breeding females living in dense patches of forests — 
surrounded by dispersing tigers making their way into not so well kept nearby 
forests. Now, when both core and buffer are under pressure, the tiger is 
hardly likely to be unaffected. 

The National Tiger Conservation Authority commissioned a study to show how 
much of our forests in tiger habitats are really capable of supporting the cat. 
In Shivaliks, comprising Corbett and other areas, only 20.34% of forests can 
really hold a tiger. The rest is too degraded and under pressure from human 
activity. Similarly, in central India, only 38.5% of the forest can support 
tigers. 

While poaching hits the tiger badly in the short run, fragmentation of forest 
poses an ever more sustained threat. Consider Buxa Tiger Reserve, surviving 
in the midst of a high density human population. Despite 20-25 tigers being 
reported, the actual numbers are possibly five-seven. 

"Secure buffers around the core of the parks are a must to give space to 
dispersing tigers. The states where this has been legislated under the Wildlife 
Protection Act are reluctant to do that," said a senior official in the 
environment ministry. 

"You have to stop poaching to ensure stabilisation of the population and then 
work at long-term viability of the animal," explained Chundawat. The 
government may have accepted that the tiger is fighting to survive but as long as the 
threats remain, it is always going to be an uneven fight. 




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